Ukrainian economy ministry expects 2026 grain harvest to decline 1% YoY

MOSCOW. May 13 (Interfax) - Ukraine's Economy, Environment and Agriculture Ministry projects this year's grain harvest at 60.4 tonnes, which is 1%, or 0.64 million tonnes less than in 2025, Ukrainian media reported citing the State Statistics Service's forecast.

"There are weather risks for corn, as this crop depends on sowing dates, temperature conditions and moisture levels during the growing phase. At the same time, the forecast for wheat and barley is entirely realistic and reliable to ensure food security. The agricultural sector demonstrates its ability to adapt even in difficult conditions," Deputy Economy, Environment and Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotsky said at the Bread Industry 2026 forum.

This season's spring sowing campaign has been more challenging because of the cold spring and waterlogged soil, which delayed the planting of late crops, he said.

The ministry's tentative estimates show that the harvest of staple crops may include around 22.4 million tonnes of wheat, some 4.7 million tommes of barley, and around 31.6 million tonnes of corn.

The domestic market will be fully supplied with grain in 2026, Vysotsky said. In particular, the total supply of wheat including stocks is estimated at around 26.6 million tonnes, while the domestic demand is only 6.4 million tonnes.

There will be about 9.1 million tonnes of milling wheat suitable for flour production, the ministry said. The total supply may reach 11.7 million tonnes, including carryover stocks.

The State Statistics Service said that Ukraine's wheat harvest grew 3.6% YoY to 23.34 million tonnes in 2025. The harvest of corn increased 14.6% to 30.9 million tonnes, while the barley harvest declined 2.4% to 5.2 million tonnes.

In its updated Inflation Report for April 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine kept its forecast for this year's grain harvest unchanged at 62.9 million tonnes but reduced it for oilseeds from 20.9 million tonnes to 20.2 million tonnes.