Russian govt gives cautious 2026 gas production forecast of 688.4 bcm despite strong start to year
MOSCOW. May 12 (Interfax) - The Russian government maintains a cautious estimate of gas production for 2026.
The updated scenarios for the Russian economy, published on the Russian Economic Development Ministry's website, estimate production at 688.4 billion cubic meters.
The government has reviewed the ministry's adjusted macroeconomic forecast for 2026 and scenarios for the 2027-2029 forecast and sent them to federal and regional government agencies for consideration.
The previous forecast of September last year gave a baseline estimate of 690.4 bcm in 2026 and a conservative estimate of 670.8 bcm.
The baseline production forecast for 2025 was initially 695.4 bcm and the conservative scenario was 659.8 bcm; when the 2026 macroeconomic forecast was being drawn up the estimate was lowered to 680.2 bcm. However, due to very mild weather during the heating season, actual production was 663 bcm, and closer to the conservative scenario.
This year began with cold weather in the winter months and a cool spring, which supported gas consumption and production greatly. Gazprom has reported record supply figures for January, February and April. According to Interfax estimates, actual gas production in Q1 2026, according to Rosstat data, exceeded the updated macroeconomic forecast by 4 bcm.
The pipeline gas export estimate for 2026 has increased slightly to 115.5 bcm from 114 bcm, and is in line with the actual figure for 2025. The main destinations for Russian gas exports are China, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and southern European countries.
The average forecast contract price for gas exports in 2026 has been increased to $268.5 per thousand cubic meters ($260.4 in the conservative estimate), compared to an actual price of $253.9 for 2025 and $236.8/$214.9 in the previous forecast. The price estimate for gas deliveries to non-CIS countries has been increased to $336.3/$323.8, compared to an actual $324 for 2025 and $308.4/$282.1 in the previous estimate.
The LNG export estimate for 2026 in the updated scenario has been affirmed at 40.3 million tonnes. Russia's bulk LNG producers are Sakhalin Energy, owned by Gazprom , Mitsui and Mitsubishi; and Yamal LNG, owned by Novatek , TotalEnergies and China's CNPC and SRF; and Cryogas-Vysotsk and Gazprom LNG Portovaya on the Baltic coast.
Gazprom's regulated gas price indexation for the 2027-2029 period has been confirmed at the previously announced levels of 9.1% in 2027, 7% in 2028 and 7% in 2029. "In keeping with long-term decisions to ensure reliable natural gas supplies to all categories of consumer, as well as ongoing social gasification programs and connecting new regions to the Unified Gas Supply System, the wholesale gas price indexation for all categories of consumer in 2027-2029 will be increased by 3 percentage points above the projected inflation rate. Given the revised inflation rate estimate, wholesale gas price indexation for all categories of consumer will be 9.1% in 2027, 7.0% in 2028 and 7.0% in 2029," the forecast says.
To guarantee the financial potential for gas distribution organizations to build infrastructure under the regional gasification programs and social gasification program, the indexation of gas transmission tariffs through gas distribution networks in 2027 will be 2 percentage points higher than the indexation of the wholesale gas price, and will not exceed this level in 2028-2029. For individual regions and gas distribution organizations, the tariff will be based on economically justified investment costs and a special surcharge to be set by the regions.
