Russian GDP grows 1.8% in March, falls 0.3% in Q1 - Econ Ministry

MOSCOW. April 29 (Interfax) - Russian GDP rose an estimated 1.8% year-on-year in March, the Economic Development Ministry said in a report on the current economic situation.

GDP had fallen 1.1% in February, adjusted from 1.5%, and 1.8% in January, adjusted from 2.1%.

GDP fell 0.3% year-on-year on January-March 2026.

The economy fell in the first two months due to calendar factors: there were two fewer working days in January and one fewer in February than in the same months last year, the ministry said earlier.

GDP grew an estimated 1.4% in March when adjusted for the seasonal factor, the ministry said.

"According to the Russian Ministry of Economic Development's estimate, GDP grew 1.8% YoY in March 2026 after falling 1.1% in February (the February GDP estimate was revised primarily due to Rosstat's revision of wholesale trade data). Adjusted for seasonal factors, GDP grew 1.4% MoM, following a 0.3% MoM increase the previous month. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2026 fell 0.3% YoY," the report says.

Russian GDP grew 1.0% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2024.

The Econ Ministry's September forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2026 was 1.3%. Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov has said this forecast would be revised down in May.

The Central Bank expects Russian economic growth of 0.5%-1.5% in 2026.

Analysts polled by Interfax in early April forecast 1.0% GDP growth in 2026