Analysts raise forecast for oil price in medium term, expectations on exchange rate - Central Bank of Russia survey

MOSCOW. April 15 (Interfax) - Analysts have increased their forecast for the oil price in the medium term and raised expectations regarding the ruble exchange rate, it follows from a survey conducted by the Central Bank of Russia.

The forecast of the oil price for tax purposes in 2026 has been raised to $65 per barrel from $55 in the March survey, to $60 per barrel from $55 for 2027 and to $60 from $59 for 2028.

Economics expect the ruble to gain in the medium term, forecasting that the dollar exchange rate will decrease from 84 to 81.2 rubles/$1 in 2026, from 92.3 to 89 rubles/$1 in 2027 and from 97.8 to 96.3/$1 in 2028.

The analysts kept their GDP growth forecast for Russia at 1% in 2026, while raising the inflation forecast from 5.3% to 5.5%. They predict the average key rate will be at 14.1% in 2026, versus the 14% forecast in March.

GDP growth is projected at 1.5% in 2027, previously 1.6%, and 1.8% in 2028, unchanged.

Analysts raised their inflation forecast for 2027 to 4.4% from 4.1% in March; they still forecast inflation in 2028 at the Central Bank's target of 4.0%.

The neutral interest rate forecast is unchanged at 8%.

The survey was conducted from April 10-14, 2026 among 28 analysts.