Cell phone tariff growth of 15% adds 0.25 pp to Ukraine's annual inflation - NBU

MOSCOW. April 9 (Interfax) - A 15% cell phone tariff hike in January-February 2026, partially caused by the electricity shortage, added 0.25 percentage points to Ukraine's annual inflation, National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Deputy Governor Vladimir Lepushinsky told local media.

"We do not expect the impact to be significant going forward, as the energy deficit affects inflation in different ways. On one hand, it is higher business costs, on the other, it is lower consumer demand," Lepushinsky said.

When commenting on a surge in producer prices in February 2026, which the State Statistics Service estimated at 22.3%, Lepushinsky said that it was due to higher electricity prices amid substantial power shortages in the country in January-February this year.

"However, this spike is not a game-changer. Rather, it is a classic example of a supply shock. We expect that producers themselves will cover some of these costs, also passing some of them on to price tags. This process is already underway. The NBU identified this risk and took it into consideration in its January macroeconomic forecast," he said.

The electricity deficit in January was slightly lower than the NBU's forecast, but there emerged a very adverse combination, including serious damage to energy infrastructure and record-low air temperatures for the past few years, Lepushinsky said. Energy-intensive industries like metallurgy, the chemical industry and machine building were affected the most.

"However, as expected, the situation in the energy sector has been improving since mid-February due to additional generation from renewable sources (solar and wind power) and warmer weather. The business activity index finally returned to positive territory in March. It is now positive even in industry," he said.

State Statistics Service data show that annual inflation in February accelerated to 7.6% from 7.4%, he said.

"Our current estimate is that it will remain at approximately the same level in March, whereas our forecast expected it to slow to 7%," Lepushinsky said.

As for the impact of the energy deficit on the forex market, Lepushinsky described it as moderate, adding that production and consequently exports from the metals, mining and chemical industries contracted, while energy imports grew to 1.2 GW in January and to an all-time high of 1.9 GW in February.

"However, the situation stabilized in March, while larger-than-expected gas stocks in our storage facilities (5.1 billion cubic meters) reduce the need for gas imports in the future," he said.

As reported, in late January the NBU worsened its inflation forecast for 2026 to 7.5% from 6.6% in its October Inflation Report, and for 2027 to 6% from 5%.

Inflation in Ukraine slowed to 8% in 2025 from 12% in 2024. Inflation decelerated to 5.1% in 2023 after surging to 26.6% in 2022.