National Bank of Ukraine's Jan-Feb 2026 economy dynamics estimate more optimistic than Economy Ministry's - deputy governor

MOSCOW. April 9 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) believes the estimate of the Economy, Environment and Agriculture Ministry that Ukraine's GDP contracted by 1.2% in January-February 2026 is overly pessimistic, NBU Deputy Governor Vladimir Lepushinsky told Ukrainian media.

"As for GDP dynamics in the first two months, we are not as pessimistic as the Economy Ministry. The economy suffered of course, but we saw sufficiently stable consumer demand, which supported it," Lepushinsky said.

The power shortage negatively affected the situation in industry, where a decline was recorded, but the final GDP figure will also depend on other sectors, he said.

"The situation in the energy sector is currently close to our expectations in January. I'd like to remind you that our forecast foresaw the energy deficit's negative impact on GDP at a level of 0.4 percentage points. Consequently, without the energy deficit, the GDP growth forecast for this year could be not 1.8% but 2.2%," he said.

The NBU will issue its next macroeconomic forecast on April 30, he said.

When commenting on the impact of Middle East hostilities that started in late February on GDP dynamics in Ukraine, Lepushinsky confirmed the preliminary estimate that it is currently close to zero, adding that this impact will be indirect and stretched over time.

As reported, at the end of January the NBU worsened its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.8% from 2.2% and lowered its real GDP growth estimate in 2025 to 1.8% from 1.9%, which was later confirmed by the State Statistics Service.

According to its updated forecast, the NBU expected economic growth at 2.4% in Q1, at 2.5% in Q2, slowing to 1.6% in Q3 and to 1% in Q4. The regulator's previous forecast, published in early November 2025, projected GDP growth at 3.1% in Q1 and Q2 of the year, slowing to 1.4% in Q3 and to 0.8% in Q4.