Central Bank of Russia confirms outlook for inflation at 4.5%-5.5% in 2026

MOSCOW. March 20 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has confirmed its outlook for inflation at 4.5%-5.5%, and expects underlying inflation to decline to around 4% in the second half of the year, the regulator said after its meeting on monetary policy.

The regulator forecasts annual inflation to remain on target in 2027 and beyond.

Seasonally adjusted price growth averaged 10.2% on an annualized basis in January-February, down from 4.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Core inflation averaged 7%, down from 5% in the previous quarter. Annual inflation was 5.9% as estimated on the March 16.

"Current price growth slowed significantly in February after the effect of one-off factors from the beginning of the year subsided. Excluding these, the estimated sustainable inflation overall is in the range of 4%-5% on an annualized basis," the Central Bank said in the press release.

Inflation expectations have not changed significantly since February, and their continued elevated level could hinder a sustained slowdown in inflation.