Russia's current account surplus falls 85.7% to $400 mln in Jan - Central Bank

MOSCOW. March 17 (Interfax) - Russia's current account surplus fell 85.7% to $400 million in January 2026 from $2.8 billion in January 2025, the Central Bank said in a balance of payments estimate, published on its website.

The current account surplus was $2.8 billion in December 2025.

The Central Bank said the decrease compared to December was primarily owing to seasonal factors, while its decline compared to January 2025 was owing to a smaller trade surplus than the previous year and an increase in the negative contribution of the balance of primary and secondary income.

Russia's trade surplus fell 10.5% to $6.6 billion in January 2026, from $7.4 billion in January the previous year, and was 33.0% lower than the adjusted December 2025 surplus of $9.8 billion. The year-on-year January drop is due to a more significant reduction in merchandise exports compared to imports.

The services trade deficit in January 2026 is estimated at $3.4 billion, compared with $5.9 billion in December 2025 and $3.0 billion in January 2025. The deficit widened compared to January 2025 due to higher aggregate spending by Russians during foreign trips than the previous year, as well as an increase in imports of other services, including construction services. The growth in service imports was partially offset by an increase in their exports by $0.5 billion, primarily in the Travel and Construction categories.

The primary and secondary revenue deficit increased to $2.8 billion in January from $1.2 billion in December 2025 and $1.6 billion in January 2025, the main reason being the year-on-year increase was the increase in dividends due to non-residents.

External assets excluding reserve assets increased by $3.8 billion in January compared to $6.7 billion growth in December 2025 and $8.4 billion growth in January 2025, primarily due to other investments.

External liabilities increased to $3.8 billion in January from $0.8 billion in December 2025 and $2.7 billion in January 2025.

Reserve assets decreased by $3.0 billion in January this year after falling $0.2 billion in December 2025.

The Central Bank's baseline scenario, updated in February, assumes that if Russian oil prices for tax purposes average at $45 per barrel there will be a current account surplus of $10 billion, visible trade surplus of $90 billion, services trade deficit of $49 billion and primary and secondary incomes deficit of $31 billion in 2026.

Estimate of key Russian balance of payment aggregates in Jan 2026, $ bln:

Indicator Jan MoM YoY Current account 0,4 -86% -86% Goods 6,6 -33% -11% Exports 27,5 -37% -8% Imports 20,9 -39% -7% Services -3,4 -42% 13% Exports 3,8 -14% 15% Imports 7,2 -29% 14% Balance of primary and secondary income -2,8 133% 75% Receivable 3,1 -18% 19% Payable 5,8 16% 38% Financial account, excluding reserve assets 0,1 -98% -98% Net acquisition of financial assets, excluding reserve assets 3,8 -43% -55% Net incurrence of liabilities 3,8 375% 41% Reserve assets -3,0 1400% 0% Net errors and omissions -3,3 -210%