Ukrainian soybean prices may fluctuate depending on oil prices - analysts

MOSCOW. March 12 (Interfax) - Ukrainian soybean prices in the short term will depend on the situation on the global energy market and oil prices, which determine the situation in the biofuel sector, Ukrainian media reported, citing the Ukrainian Agrarian Council's First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (PUSK).

Analysts said that export prices for Ukrainian soybeans are currently much higher than they were at the beginning of the season. While in September-November 2025, soybeans were sold at approximately $390-395 per tonne, whereas current prices at the ports have reached $450-460 per tonne for GMO soybeans and $475 per tonne for non-GMO soybeans, which is $60-70 per tonne higher than at the beginning of the season.

"If prices increase by approximately $10-15 per tonne, we could be talking about a nearly $100 increase for the season," experts said.

Despite the attractive pricing environment, the pace of Ukrainian soybean exports is gradually declining. Shipments stand at approximately 48,000 tonnes, which is much lower than at the start of the marketing year due to the impact of a 10% export duty, declining domestic stocks, and the high cost of Ukrainian products on global markets, analysts said.

"Ukrainian soybeans continue to be the price leader in key markets. For example, in Turkey, they cost almost $500 per tonne, while Brazilian soybeans are trading at $470-480 per tonne," experts said.

At the same time, prices remain high on the domestic market due to limited supply. Analysts estimated that soybean stocks could fall below one million tonnes in May, which would mean a near-complete depletion of last year's harvest.

"Factories will need to operate until the new harvest, so they may be willing to pay a high price. It is not ruled out that processors could raise soybean prices above UAH 21,000 per tonne," the cooperative said in a statement.

However, short-term market conditions will largely depend on the situation on the global energy market. In particular, soybean prices traditionally correlate with oil prices, as soybean oil is widely used in biodiesel production.

Short-term price fluctuations or even price declines are possible on the market in March and the first half of April. However, the market will remain stable in the medium term due to limited crop reserves and sustained demand from domestic processors, the statement said.