Sberbank raises 2026 inflation forecast due to changes in parameters of fiscal rule - CFO
MOSCOW. March 12 (Interfax) - Sberbank has raised its inflation forecast for 2026 due to the expectation of a weakening ruble amid planned changes to the parameters of the fiscal rule, Sberbank Deputy Board Chairman and Chief Financial Officer Taras Skvortsov said.
"We now expect inflation somewhere around 6%-6.5% for 2026," Skvortsov said on the RBC-TV television channel. Previously, Sberbank forecast inflation this year at 5%-6%.
"We raised our inflation forecast a little. This mainly happened after the changes to the fiscal rule announced by the Finance Ministry and the change in their [the Finance Ministry's] behavior in the currency market. That is, we assume that there will be less activity, and this will lead to the ruble being somewhat weaker by the end of the year. Naturally, this will give a little more inflation," Skvortsov said.
The budget factor could exert certain pressure on inflation, he said.
"It depends on what happens with budget revenues, but even if they are compensated by a higher oil price, it is still impossible to reduce budget expenditures enough to completely reduce the deficit to zero. Most likely, there will also be some impact on inflation from government spending," he said.
Skvortsov said he expects the dollar exchange rate by the end of 2026 to be in the range of 85-90 rubles.
Overall, Sberbank positively assesses the potential reduction in the base price in the fiscal rule, as in the long term it will reduce volatility in the currency market, Skvortsov said.
At the same time, expectations for the Central Bank of Russia's key rate for 2026 have shifted closer to the upper bound of the forecast - 13%.
"We expected a range of 12%-13% by the end of the year. Now it has shifted more towards 13%. We believe that the Central Bank will lower the rate, but will lower it at the pace it has been doing over the last few meetings - by 0.5 percentage points, possibly even pausing at some meetings," he said.
