Analysts lower average three-year key rate forecasts - Central Bank of Russia survey

MOSCOW. March 11 (Interfax) - Analysts have lowered their key rate forecasts for the whole three-year horizon, according to the latest Central Bank of Russia survey.

The 2026 key rate forecast is lowered from 14.1% to 14.0%, the 2027 forecast from 10.4% to 10.3% and 2028 from 9.0% to 8.9%.

The inflation forecasts over the three-year horizon are unchanged at 5.3% in 2026, 4.1% in 2027 and 4.0% in 2028.

The Russian GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered to 1.0% from 1.1% in the February survey and the 2027 forecast to 1.6% from 1.7%, while the 2028 forecast remains at 1.8%.

The latest survey of 27 economists was conducted from March 6-10.

Analysts have retained the estimate for the neutral rate at 8%.

Analysts have lowered their forecasts for the average annual dollar exchange rate for three years to 84 rubles/$1 in 2026 from 85 rubles/$1 previously, to 92.3 rubles/$1 in 2027 from 94.5 rubles/$1, and to 97.8 rubles/$1 in 2028 from 98.9 rubles/$1.

Expectations for the average oil price for tax purposes were raised to $55 per barrel in 2026 from $50 per barrel, lowered to $55 per barrel in 2027 from $56 per barrel, and decreased to $59 per barrel in 2028 from $60 per barrel.