USDA lowers wheat export forecast for Ukraine in 2025-2026 MY by 0.5 mln tonnes

MOSCOW. March 11 (Interfax) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (July 2025-June 2026) by 0.5 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes in its March 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, while raising its forecast for Ukraine's wheat harvest in the reporting period by 1 million tonnes to 24 million tonnes, Ukrainian media reported.

Estimates of Ukraine's wheat ending stocks were increased to 3.13 million tonnes in the USDA March report, which is 1.5 million tonnes more than in the February report. Exports have been adjusted amid the overall growth of global wheat supply, which, according to analysts' estimates, has increased by 0.2 million tonnes to around 1.102 billion tonnes, mostly due to higher results in Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

In its March report, the USDA also raised its Ukraine corn harvest forecast by 1.7 million tonnes to 30.7 million tonnes and its forecast for Ukraine's corn ending stocks by 1.3 million tonnes to 1.95 million tonnes. The USDA kept its forecast for Ukrainian corn exports unchanged at 22 million tonnes.

"Ukraine [corn production] is raised based on the latest information from the State Statistics Service," the report said.

The USDA projects global wheat production in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) at 842.12 million tonnes (+0.32 million tonnes), global wheat exports at 222.16 million tonnes (+0.2 million tonnes), and global wheat ending stocks at 276.96 million tonnes (-0.55 million tonnes). As for the main exports, the USDA lowered its export forecast for the European Union by 1.5 million tonnes to 30.5 million tonnes and by -0.5 million tonnes to 43.5 million tonnes for Russia. It raised the export forecast for Argentina to a record amount of 19.5 million tonnes (+1.5 million tonnes).

The USDA estimates global corn production in the 2025-2026 MY at 297.44 million tonnes (+1.53 million tonnes), global corn exports at 206.85 million tonnes (0.3 million tonnes), and global corn ending stocks at 292.75 million tonnes (+3.77 million tonnes).