Russian federal budget deficit 3.5 trillion rubles or 1.5% of GDP in Jan-Feb

MOSCOW. March 10 (Interfax) - The Russian federal budget had a January-February 2026 deficit of 3.449 trillion rubles or 1.5% of GDP according to preliminary estimates, the Finance Ministry said.

The planned federal budget deficit for the year is 3.786 trillion rubles or 1.6% of GDP.

There was a deficit of 1.718 trillion rubles or 0.7% of GDP for January, according to preliminary MinFin data. So the February deficit can be estimated at 1.7 trillion rubles. Federal Treasury data point to a January deficit of 1.629 trillion rubles, so compared with that figure the February deficit could have been 1.8 trillion rubles.

"The high deficit at the beginning of the year is primarily due to advance financing of expenditures within a year and will not affect the fulfillment of the target parameters of the structural balance for 2026 as a whole," the Finance Ministry said.

Budget revenue fell 10.8% year-on-year in January-February to 4.767 trillion rubles.

Oil and gas revenues fell 47% year-on-year to 826 billion rubles, as oil prices fell. They were also lower than baseline oil and gas revenues, which are 1.161 trillion rubles. Therefore, in keeping with fiscal rules, National Wealth Fund money equal to the oil and gas revenue shortfall was used to finance the deficit.

Non-oil revenue grew 4.1% year-on-year in January-February to 3.942 trillion rubles. VAT revenue rose 10.8% year-on-year to 2.237 trillion rubles.

Budget expenditure fell 5.8% year-on-year to 8.216 trillion rubles in a pattern similar to the start of 2025 due to the prompt conclusion of contracts and advance financing for individual contract expenses.

Approved budget revenue for the year is 40.283 trillion rubles and expenditure is 44.07 trillion rubles.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said the 2026 federal budget might be adjusted slightly due to the external situation. "The figures might adjusted slightly, given the external environment," Siluanov said. He also said the government was thinking of tightening the fiscal rule by lowering the cut-off price. "This year, we see the need the need to do this fairly promptly, and for the next three years. I think we will look at and adopt such decisions fairly quickly," he said at the end of February.

The main parameters for adjusting the fiscal rule are ready and the government might make such decisions within a couple of weeks, he said.

The government decided last year to gradually reduce the cut-off price for oil in the fiscal rule by $1 per year, from $60 per barrel to $55 by 2030.

The Finance Ministry does not currently see any need to further review the budget structure and this issue may only be discussed if reasons arise to believe that the equilibrium price in the medium term will lower than the planned cut-off price, Deputy Finance Minister Vladimir Kolychev said in January this year.