National Bank of Kazakhstan holds base rate at 18% as expected

ASTANA. March 6 (Interfax) - The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan has made the decision to hold the base rate at 18% per annum with a corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point (pp), the National Bank said in a statement.

Analysts surveyed by Interfax predicted that the bank would hold the rate.

"This decision is based on the results of the forecast round, updated estimates for the main macroeconomic indicators and the balance of inflation risks," the statement reads.

Annual inflation slowed to 11.7% in February 2026 from 12.2% in January, in line with forecasts. All components of inflation slowed. Monthly inflation, however, accelerated to 1.1% in February.

"Disinflation is being supported by moderately tight monetary conditions, the strengthening of the tenge, slower growth in unsecured consumer lending and a reduction in excess liquidity through a gradual increase in banks' minimum reserve requirements, mirroring operations and a range of anti-inflation measures implemented by the government and the National Bank," the statement said.

In particular, a moratorium on price increases for housing and utilities and fuel is helping curb inflation. The impact of the VAT increase is expected to be limited, the regulator said.

According to the National Bank, inflation expectations among households for the year ahead declined to 13.7% in February, although they remain elevated and volatile. Inflation expectations among professional market participants for 2026 fell to 10.0% in February from 10.8% in January.

"Global food prices continue to ease. Dairy and sugar prices are falling, while grain and vegetable oil prices have risen. Inflation in Russia remains elevated, with the target expected to be reached by 2027. In the EU, inflation remains subdued, while in the United States it is approaching the target amid the Federal Reserve's cautious policy," the statement said.

The National Bank will continue to assess the pace at which inflation slows, internal demand the actual implementation of fiscal consolidation and the quality of quasi-fiscal stimulus measures.

The efficacy of measures to control inflation, jointly with the government, will also be monitored, as will price trends for housing and utilities and fuel, and the ongoing adaptation of households and businesses to the tax reform.

The National Bank's next rate-setting meeting takes place on April 24.