Russian household inflation expectations down to 13.1% in Feb, returning to level of April 2025 - CBR survey

MOSCOW. Feb 19 (Interfax) - Russian household inflation expectations have fallen to 13.1% in February 2026, back to their April 2025 level, according to a survey by InFOM for the Central Bank.

Inflation expectations were 13.7% in January 2026, as in December 2025.

Observed inflation in February was 14.5% for the fourth consecutive month.

The latest survey was conducted on February 4-13.

Inflation expectations in 2025 were highest in January, at 14.0%. They were 13.7% in February 2025, 12.9% in March, 13.1% in April, 13.4% in May, 13% in June and July, 13.5% in August, 12.6% in September and October, 13.3% in November and 13.7% in December.

Inflation expectations among respondents without savings have fallen to 14.2% in February from 15.2% in January 2026, while among respondents with savings they have fallen to 11.5% from 12.0%.

Observed inflation among respondents without savings has risen to 16.0% from 15.9%, while among respondents with savings it has fallen to 12.9% from 13.2%.

Household and business inflation expectations are key factors in the Central Bank's monetary-policy decision making.

The Central Bank has said Russian business price expectations have fallen in February after rising on the back of the VAT hike in January and are now close to their average level for 2025. The regulator unveiled the figures ahead of its February 13 meeting, at which it lowered the key rate 50 basis points to 15.5% and revised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.5%-5.5% from 4%-5%.

The regulator said earlier that price growth in January had been driven by higher VAT, tariffs and excise taxes and, from a low base in November-December 2025, prices for fruits and vegetables.

Inflation was 1.62% in January 2026, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has said. Inflation was lower than the 1.96% that analysts predicted in a consensus forecast, and lower than the 2.05% that weekly inflation figures pointed to.

The one-time pro-inflationary factors that materialized in January will be exhausted at the beginning of 2026, and they will not have secondary effects in terms of impacting inflation expectations, Central Bank of Russia Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin told journalists on February 17. "The baseline forecast assumes that the one-time factors that materialized in January will be mostly exhausted at the very beginning of the year, and that they will not give rise to secondary effects, meaning they will not prevent a further decline in inflation expectations," Zabotkin said