CBR revises forecast for bank liquidity deficit to 1.9 trln-3 trln for 2026

MOSCOW. Feb 17 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has revised its forecast for the banking sector's structural liquidity deficit in 2026 to 1.9 trillion-3 trillion rubles from 2.5 trillion-3 trillion rubles, CBR commentary indicates.

The CBR still expects banks' requirements for liquidity on market terms to be in the range of 5.3 trillion to 6.4 trillion rubles.

The outflow of liquidity from banks will be due primarily to the growth of cash in circulation, the CBR said.

The CBR expects the outflow on transactions mirroring National Wealth Fund (NWF) investments in the second half of 2025 to be greater than the inflow of NWF funds on current investments in the first half of 2026. This will result in a net outflow of liquidity from banks.

The CBR mirrors all Finance Ministry transactions with NWF funds, including investment. In addition, the Federal Treasury operationally deposits budget account balances in banks, so in the long term these transactions are neutral for the banking sector's liquidity balance.

The increase of banks' mandatory reserves in proportion to the growth of the money supply will also lead to some increase in liquidity needs, the CBR said.