Central Bank of Russia's signal not a commitment, but there is now more confidence in possibility of rate cuts at upcoming meetings - Nabiullina

MOSCOW. Feb 13 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia's signal is not a firm commitment, but there is now more confidence in the possibility of cutting the key rate at upcoming meetings, CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina said at a briefing following the Central Bank's board of directors meeting at which it lowered the key rate from 16.0% to 15.5%.

"Regarding the signal. Now we have more confidence that we can continue cutting the key rate at upcoming meetings. This is also implied by our forecast for the key rate trajectory in our baseline scenario. That is, we are bringing the signal into line with this trajectory," Nabiullina said when commenting on the question of softening the signal.

"But I want to emphasize once again that our signal is not an unconditional commitment to cut the rate. It is not strictly tied to specific meetings. Therefore, we say that we will assess the advisability of further key rate cuts by analyzing all the data," she said.

The Central Bank's board of directors decided to lower the key rate by 50 basis points (bps), from 16% to 15.5%, at its meeting on Friday.

The Central Bank's signal about the future direction of monetary policy following the final meeting of last year, as in October, was neutral, saying that it will maintain the tightness of monetary conditions necessary to return inflation to target. This means a prolonged period of tight monetary policy. Further decisions on the key rate will be made depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations, it said.

This time, having cut the rate, the CBR simultaneously softened its signal. "The Bank of Russia will assess the need for a further key rate cut at its upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the inflation slowdown and the dynamics of inflation expectations," it said. The regulator also removed the mention of duration from the phrase about maintaining tight monetary conditions.

The CBR on Friday narrowed its forecast for the average key rate for 2026 to 13.5%-14.5% from 13%-15% in October, according to its updated macroeconomic forecast.

From February 16 until the end of 2026, the average key rate is forecast in the range of 13.1%-14.3%.