National Bank of Ukraine raises 2025 grain harvest forecast to 63.5 mln tonnes, cuts oilseed harvest forecast to 18.6 mln tonnes

MOSCOW. Feb 9 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) upgraded its forecast for the 2025 harvest of grain and pulses from 61.5 million tonnes in its October 2025 Inflation Report to 63.5 million tonnes in the January 2026 Inflation Report but worsened the forecast for the oilseed harvest from 19.3 million tonnes to 18.6 million tonnes.

"The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 was reduced by 0.7 million tonnes because of the somewhat lower than expected harvest of soybeans and the impossibility to gather some of the sunflower harvest as a result of adverse weather conditions," Ukrainian media quoted the NBU as saying in its January 2026 Inflation Report.

It is already the NBU's second revision of its forecast following the July 2025 Inflation Report, which projected the grain harvest at 57.9 million tonnes and the oilseed harvest at 21 million tonnes in 2025. In 2024, Ukraine's grain harvest stood at 56.2 million tonnes, and the oilseed harvest at 21.3 million tonnes.

The NBU said, citing the Agriculture Ministry's latest data, that 89% of the corn harvest and 95% of the grain and pulse crop harvest had been gathered by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, due to the considerably higher yield of corn, the total harvest of grain and pulses last year was larger than the 2024 harvest - by 7.4%, according to Agriculture Ministry figures, or by 3%, according to the final data published by the State Statistics Service.

Meanwhile, the NBU has kept its forecast for the 2026 grain harvest unchanged at 62.9 million tonnes but cut its forecast for this year's oilseed harvest from 21.4 million tonnes to 20.9 million tonnes.

"In 2026-2027, the production of grain and pulses (62.9 million tonnes and 63.5 million tonnes, respectively) will remain at a level similar to the current one but will grow substantially in 2028 (65 million tonnes). Oilseed output will be moderate in 2026-2028 (up to 22 million tonnes at the end of the forecast period) amid the sector's gradually improving performance [...]," the NBU said.

At the same time, the NBU expects the contribution of livestock production to the agriculture's sector's added value to remain negative in the future due to the anticipated decline in herd size and pressure from operational expenses. However, this negative contribution will be smaller than previously expected thanks to poultry farming growth and an active recovery in pig breeding after the extensive losses of 2024, according to the regulator's Inflation Report.

However, although 2025 saw a larger harvest than 2024, cargo transportation for export dropped 23% year-on-year in Q4 2025 (a decline of 34% year-on-year in Q3) primarily due to the further decrease in sea freight shipping by 22% year-on-year in Q4 (after falling by 30% year-on-year in Q3), according to data from the Agriculture Ministry.

Transportation of goods by rail went down by 28% year-in-year in Q4 2025 (following a 58% decrease year-on-year in Q3), and cargo transportation by road fell 42% year-on-year in Q4 (after falling by 53% in Q3).

State Statistics Service data show that the reduction of cargo turnover accelerated to 18% year-on-year on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger traffic growth slowed to 0% year-on-year on average in Q4, having increased by an average of 7% in Q3.