GDP growth in Ukraine projected at 2.1% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 - analysts

MOSCOW. Feb 5 (Interfax) - Ukraine's Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) and the German Economic Team (GET) project real GDP growth in Ukraine at 2.1% in 2026 and at 2.6% in 2027, to be spurred by private consumption and investment, Ukrainian media reported, citing the IER-GET latest macroeconomic forecast.

The current account deficit is expected to grow fast in 2026: from 16.2% of GDP in 2025 to 20.8% of GDP in 2026, and 21.5% of GDP in 2027, IER said. This dynamics is due to stagnating exports and further growth of imports, which increased 21% in January-October 2025. Real exports fell 15.4% year-on-year while imports grew 10.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025.

Inflation in Ukraine decelerated to 8% in December 2025 after peaking at 15.9% in May 2025. The inflation rate is expected to average at 6.1% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, standing at 6.2% and 5.5%, respectively, at the end of the year. Factors constraining inflation include moderate consumer demand and the government's postponement of gas and heating tariff hikes for the population for another year. The moratorium was supposed to be lifted in Q4 2025 but was extended for a year.

Lower oil prices in 2026 are expected to limit energy expenses. At the same time, prices are seeing pressure from workforce shortages, which maintain high expenses for labor remuneration, as well as an anticipated increase in prices for heating, electricity and natural gas.

The exchange rate is projected at the level of UAH 43.05/$1 in 2026 and UAH 44.24/$1 in 2027.

The forecast also reveals a number of critical challenges, including the cumulative budgetary financing deficit at $91 billion in 2026-2027. In addition, the volumes of private remittances are expected to gradually decrease due to Ukrainians' integration abroad and the smaller role of international aid in the form of grants.

As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine projects real GDP growth at 1.8% in 2026, and inflation at 7.5% in 2026 and 6% in 2027. ICU Investment Group, in turn, expects real GDP growth in Ukraine to decelerate to 1.2% in 2026 from 2.1% in 2025. Dragon Capital projects real GDP growth in Ukraine at 1% in 2026, while the government has formed the 2026 budget based on the 2.4% economic growth forecast.