Russia's GDP growth expected to be 1% in 2025 - deputy PM

MOSCOW. Feb 3 (Interfax) - The Russian economy grew 1% in 2025 according to preliminary data, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at a meeting of the Federation Council's Economic Policy Committee.

"In 2025, despite all the challenges facing our economy, growth was maintained, although slower than in previous years. I would like to recall that economic growth was 4.3% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. We expect 1% for 2025," he said.

The slowdown in growth is primarily related "to tight monetary policy, and to tight fiscal policy, associated with inflation targeting," he said. "It should be noted that this task has been successfully addressed - if last year inflation was 9.5%, this year we ended the year at a level of 5.6%, and this is significantly lower than the forecast, which was 6.8%," he said.

Positive economic dynamics were ensured among other things by an increase in industrial production, particularly in manufacturing, he said.

According to preliminary data, manufacturing output increased 2.8% in 2025. According to Rosstat data for 11M 2025, the sector's growth was 2.6%.

Analysts surveyed by Interfax at the end of December forecasted Russian GDP growth in 2025 at 0.9%, which is somewhat lower than the September forecast of the Economic Development Ministry (1.0%) and closer to the upper bound of the Central Bank of Russia's new October forecast (0.5%-1.0%).