NBU downgrades Ukraine's GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 2% in 2026

MOSCOW. Jan 29 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 1.8% in 2026, while the October Inflation Report referred to a 2% target, Ukrainian media reported.

"Increasing harvests and investment in rebuilding infrastructure and the defense sector will ensure further economic recovery. However, the deteriorating situation in the energy sector will restrain business activity for a long time. Given this, the real GDP in 2026 will grow moderately by 1.8%," the media quoted the regulator as saying in a statement.

The National Bank also said that at the end of 2025, the economy revived due to more active harvesting, in particular, considering the shift of the harvesting campaign to Q4, and against the backdrop of increased budget spending. However, due to the disrupted logistics and a larger-than-expected shortage of electricity in recent months, the NBU lowered its real GDP growth estimate in 2025 to 1.8% from 1.9%.

As for the forecast for the following years, the NBU expects economic growth to accelerate to 3%-4% in 2027-2028. The gradual improvement of the situation in the energy sector and increased private investment are among the factors contributing to an effort to rectify the current economic situation.

As reported, the ICU investment group predicts a slowdown in Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.2% from 2.1% in 2025, and in Dragon Capital to 1%, while the government has based the 2026 state budget on a 2.4% economic growth forecast.