National Bank of Ukraine raises forex interventions 27.1% last week amid cheaper hryvnia

MOSCOW. Jan 19 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased the sales of dollars on the interbank market by $192.8 million, or 27.1%, to $904.9 million last week, Ukrainian media reported, citing the statistics published on the regulator's website.

The NBU said in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of foreign currency purchases and sales by legal entities rose to $107.2 million from $67.3 million in the same period a week before and totaled $428.8 million.

On the market of forex operations by the population, the negative balance from Saturday to Thursday, on the contrary, declined to $30.8 million from $46.5 million the week before last, and non-cash currency sales exceeded its purchases all these days.

The official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 43.0757 UAH/$1, weakened to 43.1236 UAH/$1 in three days and ended the week with a weakening to 43.3927 UAH/$1.

On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate changed along the trajectory of the official exchange rate last week, and overall, the dollar rose strengthened 11 kopecks over the past week: purchases were up to 43.12 UAH/$1, and sales up to 43.53 UAH/$1.

Analysts at the KYT Group FinTech platform, a major player in the retail currency market (Liberty-Finance LLC), said the devaluation processes on the Ukrainian forex market accelerated in mid-January 2026: the official hryvnia exchange rate has increased from 42.35 UAH/$1 to 43.39 UAH/$1 since the beginning of the month, and quotations on the interbank market were temporarily approaching 43.55 UAH/$1.

On the cash market, the dollar rate for purchase was formed in the range of 43.0-43.2 UAH/$1, 43.6-43.7 UAH/$1 for sale, at the same time, the spread between the purchase and sale rates at bank cash desks and exchangers has changed slightly compared to December and amounts to 0.4-0.6 UAH/$1, analysts said.

The major external factors of influence remain expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve System's monetary policy and the preservation of a relatively strong dollar on global markets amid the country's steady macroeconomic indicators and eased concerns about the regulator's independence, they said.

At the same time, the domestic forex market is under pressure from seasonal budget spending growth and controlled hryvnia devaluation with the regulator's active involvement via forex interventions.

According to analysts' forecasts, in the short term, the dollar exchange rate will be within the base range of 43.4-43.9 UAH/$1 for one to two weeks, with potential fluctuations towards a weaker hryvnia. In the medium term, the exchange rate is expected to move within the range of 43.4-44.8 UAH/$1 for two to three months against the backdrop of high import demand, budget deficit, the situation in the energy sector and international financial aid receipts.

In the long term, for more than six months, they expect the hryvnia devaluation trend to persist within 43.4-44.9 UAH/$1 in H1 2026, which will require the NBU periodically raise forex interventions to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations.