Ukrainian bankers expect hryvnia exchange rate to stabilize
MOSCOW. Jan 14 (Interfax) - Bankers interviewed by Ukrainian media believe that the current weakening of the national currency, the hryvnia, is seasonal and its exchange rate will stabilize soon; most of them also see no reasons for the hryvnia's sharp and uncontrollable weakening.
"The current trend toward weakening the hryvnia should be viewed not as a protracted negative scenario but as a phase of controlled exchange rate correction, which began back last fall," Globus Bank Board Chairman Sergei Mamedov said.
The correction is largely due to a seasonal increase in demand for forex at the end and beginning of a year, as well as the exchange rate's adjustment to economic realities, Mamedov said. As seasonal factors subside, tax payments start increasing, and farmers supply more forex, the market will gradually enter a stabilization phase, he said.
"The key benchmark for the dollar will be UAH 43.2 UAH/$1 at the end of January and in February," Mamedov said.
Anton Kurinny, a leading expert at OTP Bank's global markets department, also expects the hryvnia's exchange rate to stabilize soon. The hryvnia might stop weakening within the next few days and then strengthen to UAH 42.80-43.00/$1 from the current levels of UAH 43.30-43.40/$1, he said.
Commenting on factors affecting the exchange rate, Kurinny noted that it depends on the National Bank's activity and demand for foreign currency. In particular, a cold winter could increase demand due to additional gas purchases. At the same time, international aid and the record high level of gold and forex reserves remain important factors, he said.
Alexander Pecheritsyn, director of the analytical research department at Raiffeisen Bank, said he believed that, while the current weakening trend could continue for up to six weeks, it would involve fluctuations in both ways rather than a unidirectional movement.
"There are no objective conditions for the hryvnia's exchange rate to go above 43.70/$1 in the near future," he said.
Among the key factors in the exchange rate dynamics at the start of the year, respondents cited seasonal growth in demand for foreign currency, a significant amount of hryvnia liquidity following record-high budget payments at the end of last year, energy imports, and the impact of the crisis on export potential and energy infrastructure.
At the same time, the experts interviewed said they did not see any necessity for the National Bank's additional or emergency action. Mamedov said the National Bank has a sufficient safety margin owing to a stable key rate and international reserves exceeding $57 billion, allowing it to effectively smooth out exchange rate fluctuations without excessive intervention.
Sergei Gnezdilov, head of Radabank's international markets and money circulation department, also said that, with the current interbank market levels of UAH 43.25-43.35/$1, the exchange rate has the potential to stabilize, and further dynamics will largely depend on the volume of the regulator's forex interventions.
"The exchange rate could well decline, but it is unlikely to return to UAH 42.00/$1 at this point. A more likely benchmark would be around UAH 42.60/$1," he said.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate at UAH 43.2552/$1 on January 13. It weakened by UAH 0.18 during the day, hitting a new all-time low for the sixth day in a row.
Since the beginning of 2026, the National Bank has weakened the official hryvnia-dollar exchange rate by 2.1%, compared to 0.8% for the entire previous year.
