Russia's grain shipments for export fall almost 18% in July-Dec 2025 to 33.9 mln tonnes - expert

MOSCOW. Jan 13 (Interfax) - Russia shipped 33.9 million tonnes of the main types of grain crops for export in the first half of the current agricultural year (July-December 2025), down 17.6% from the figure for a year earlier (41.2 million tonnes), according to a monitoring report by the Russian Grain Union.

Wheat accounted for 82.5% of shipments of the main grain types, at 27.9 million tonnes, down 14% compared to last season when 32.5 million tonnes were exported, the director of the union's analytical department Elena Tyurina told Interfax. Barley shipments decreased 27.9% to 3.2 million tonnes and corn shipments fell 11.7% to 1.8 million tonnes.

"The main reason for the reduction in grain shipments, primarily wheat, is of course active competition in the global market," Tyurina said. "In the current season, according to January estimates, a significant increase in shipments from EU countries is expected - up to 32.5 million tonnes compared to 27.9 million tonnes last season. Australia may supply up to 27 million tonnes of wheat to the global market; last season it was 21.3 million tonnes. A significant increase is also expected from Argentina. These are precisely the countries whose grain Russian wheat has to compete with."

As a result, in the first half of the agricultural year, Russian wheat was sold either with no discount at all compared to the European price, or with a minimal discount, she said. "Under such conditions, it is possible that we may not fully utilize the available export potential," Tyurina said. According to her estimate, the export potential for wheat in the current agricultural year is 46 million to 47 million tonnes. "But under conditions of tough competition, I think it will be 44 million to 45 million tonnes," she said.

In addition, wheat was shipped to 49 countries in July-December 2025, compared to 69 in the same period in 2024, she said. "A number of buyers switched to purchasing from other countries, primarily due to the lack of a discount on Russian grain," she said.

The main buyer of Russian wheat during this period was Egypt, where 5.35 million tonnes were shipped, down 21% compared to the figure for July-December 2024 (6.76 million tonnes). Supplies to Turkey almost doubled to 4.234 million tonnes. This can be explained by the low base of the previous year, when there was a ban on wheat imports. Bangladesh is in third place. Shipments to this country fell by one third to 1.833 million tonnes.

"Among the regular buyers is Israel. In the first half of the current season, shipments to this country grew 10.8% to 1.773 million tonnes. The top five is rounded out by Iran, where 1.627 million tonnes were sent, which is 2.7 times more than in July-December 2024," Tyurina said. "Among the countries that increased purchases are also Libya - 28%, Sudan - 2.4-fold and Iraq - 2.5-fold."

Shipments to Saudi Arabia are stable, she said.

At the same time, exports to Algeria and Morocco have decreased significantly, which may be related to these countries reorienting towards purchasing European wheat, she said.

Barley was shipped to 18 countries in the first half of the season compared to 24 a year ago, she said. The largest buyer is traditionally Iran, which increased purchases 2.5-fold to 1.533 million tonnes. "And as expected, shipments to Turkey grew - 7.8-fold to 503,000 tonnes, which is related to the increase in the quota for purchasing corn and barley to 1 million tonnes. The top three is rounded out by Saudi Arabia, but it reduced purchases almost 69% to 483,000 tonnes," she said.

Corn was shipped to only five countries compared to 18 last season. The leader is traditionally Iran, but shipments to this country decreased 8% to 1.218 million tonnes. Exports to Turkey grew 9% to 401,000 tonnes and to China 28% to 112,000 tonnes.

The number of exporting companies in the first half of the season was 97, compared to 235 a year ago.

Grains and pulses were shipped through 61 ports in July-December compared to 69 last season, Tyurina said. For example, shipments through Novorossiysk decreased 5.7% to 12.847 million tonnes. Offshore transshipment decreased 29% to 6.304 million tonnes. Transshipment through Rostov-on-Don decreased 22.4% to 4.19 million tonnes, through Azov it increased 5.6% to 2.41 million tonnes, and through Astrakhan it increased 14% to 1.292 million tonnes.

"Shipments through the port of Vysotsk have become more active, from where grain was sent to Angola, Bangladesh, Israel, Kenya, Libya and a number of other countries," Tyurina said.

Speaking about the price situation on the market, Tyurina said that European wheat prices decreased 1% over the half-year to $228 per tonne. The decrease in prices for Russian wheat (FOB Novorossiysk) was larger - at 4.2% (by $10) to $226 per tonne. "If at the beginning of the season Russian wheat was $6 more expensive than European, and this led to a decrease in shipments, then by the end of the year there was a $2 discount. If it persists, then an increase in shipments can be expected," she said.

Producer prices for wheat since the start of the season in dollar equivalent have decreased 13% to $171 compared to $196 per tonne, she said.

"In annual terms, the decrease is more serious. European prices fell by $20 compared to $248 on December 31, 2024. Russian wheat became cheaper by $18 - from $244 per tonne, respectively. Producer prices in dollar equivalent increased 11.9% compared to $152.6 per tonne on December 31, 2024," she said.