Rosstat confirms 0.6% Russian Q3 GDP growth estimate

MOSCOW. Dec 30 (Interfax) - Russian GDP grew 0.6% year-on-year in Q3 after rising 1.1% in Q2 and 1.4% in Q1 2025, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said in a report on GDP consumption in Q3.

Rosstat confirmed its previous estimate of 0.6% GDP growth by output in Q3.

"GDP was 54.501 trillion rubles at current prices in Q3 2025. The physical volume index compared with Q3 2024 was 100.6% and compared with Q2 2025 it was 105.9%. The GDP deflator compared with Q3 2024 prices was 106.6%, and compared with Q2 2025 prices it was 103.9%," Rosstat said.

Combined household and state consumption accounted for 72.2% of Russian GDP in Q3 2025, up from 69.4% in Q3 2024, Rosstat said.

Household consumption accounted for 52.6% of GDP in Q3 2025, up from 50.4% a year earlier. State consumption rose to 19.1% from 18.4%. Spending by non-commercial organizations that service households fell to 0.5% from 0.6%.

Gross capital formation fell to 25.2% from 27.4% of GDP: investment fell to 22.6% from 22.7%, and inventory changes fell to 2.6% from 4.7%.

Net exports fell in Q3 2025, to 2.6% of GDP from 3.2% in Q3 2024.

Rosstat has said GDP grew 1.0% year-on-year in January-September 2025.

The Russian Economic Development Ministry in September lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.0% from the 2.5% it was predicting in April, and its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3% from 2.4%.

The Central Bank in October lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 0.5%-1.0% from its July outlook of 1.0-2.0%, but kept its 2026 growth forecast at 0.5-1.5%.

Analysts surveyed by Interfax said at the end of December that they were expecting 0.9% GDP growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.