Fitch raises Ukraine's rating to CCC after restructuring GDP warrants
MOSCOW. Dec 24 (Interfax) - Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ukraine's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to "CCC" from "RD" (Restricted Default) following progress in the restructuring of GDP warrants, Ukrainian media said.
"The upgrade [of the rating] reflects Fitch's assessment that Ukraine has normalized relations with a substantial majority of its external commercial creditors," the international rating agency said.
It was announced on December 18 that 99% of investors supported the exchange of GDP warrants for Eurobonds, and with the restructuring of sovereign and state-guaranteed debt in August 2024, Ukraine, according to Fitch estimates, restructured 94% of its commercial external government debt and state-guaranteed debt.
By the terms of the swap, Ukraine will convert almost the entire outstanding nominal amount of GDP warrants ($2.6 billion) into new Class C bonds maturing in 2032 at a multiple of 1.34, worth approximately $3.497 billion (and a small portion into Class B bonds issued during the restructuring of last year's Eurobonds, maturing in 2030 and 2034, worth $16.91 million each). However, in early June, Ukraine missed a payment on these warrants totaling $665 million.
The EU approved a new 90-billion-euro loan for Ukraine, Fitch said, adding that would finance needs for more than a year and reduce short-term debt sustainability risks. Fitch said.
At the same time, Fitch noted that the 'CCC' rating reflects significant credit risks due to the crisis and its macroeconomic and fiscal implications, although these risks are partially offset by a manageable near-term repayment profile, significant foreign exchange reserves, and EU support.
External commercial debt payments will average $0.9 billion in 2026-2028, and the first maturity of the restructured Eurobonds will not occur until 2029, it said.
Fitch also affirmed Ukraine's Long-Term Local Currency IDR at 'CCC+', noting that only 0.8% of the hryvnia-denominated debt (as of December 2025) is held by non-residents.
