National Bank of Kazakhstan to keep base rate at 18% in Q1, lower it to 14% by the end of 2026 - EDB

ALMATY. Dec 18 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Kazakhstan will keep the base rate at 18% until the end of Q1 2026, lowering it subsequently to 14% by the end of the year, the Eurasian Development Bank forecasts.

"We believe the National Bank will keep the base rate at 18% until the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. Only after a more sustained slowdown of inflation will the regulator begin to lower the base rate. We forecast the base rate will be around 14% at the end of 2026," Aigul Berdigulova, senior analyst at the EDB, said during the presentation of the 2026-2028 macroeconomic forecast on Thursday in Almaty.

The rate has been 18% since October of this year. The National Bank on November 28 decided to keep it at this level amid high inflation.

The EDB expects annual inflation in Kazakhstan to slow to 9.7% by the end of 2026 - this was 12.4% in November 2025.

Inflation will slow "thanks to measures already taken by the National Bank, with rates kept high. The government's measures to freeze housing utility charges and prices for certain foods will also help to lower inflation," Berdigulova said.

The tenge rate, 514.31 tenge/$1 on December 18, will reach 535 tenge/$1 in 2026, with pressure on the national currency coming from lower oil prices than the average for the last three years.

"Another factor that will weigh on the exchange rate is the reduction in transfers from the National Fund. However, these factors will be offset by the physical growth of oil exports, as well as the impact of high interest rates, which are currently at record levels," Berdigulova said.