Analysts lower Russian 2025 inflation, GDP growth forecasts, key rate expectations unchanged - Central Bank survey

MOSCOW. Dec 10 (Interfax) - Analysts have lowered their inflation forecast for Russia in 2025 to 6.3% from the 6.6% they were predicting in October, according to the latest Central Bank survey.

The GDP forecast for 2025 has been lowered slightly, to 0.9% from 1.0%.

The average key rate forecast for the current year is unchanged at 19.2%.

The inflation forecast for 2026 is also unchanged, at 5.1%, while the average key rate forecast was raised to 14.1% from 13.7%. The 2026 GDP growth forecast was lowered to 1.1% from 1.2%.

The latest survey of 30 economists was conducted from December 5-9.

The 2027 inflation forecast has been lowered to 4.0% from 4.1%, while for 2028 it is unchanged at 4%.

GDP growth is projected at 1.7% in 2027, previously 1.8%, and at 1.8% in 2028, previously 1.9%.

The average key rate is expected to be 10.3% in 2027, previously 10.0%, and 8.9% in 2028, previously 9.0%. The neutral rate forecast is unchanged at 8.0%.

Analysts forecast the average annual dollar exchange rate at 83.8 rubles/$1 in 2025 versus 85 rubles/$1 in October, at 90.3 rubles/$1 in 2026, previously 94.6 rubles/$1, at 97.6 rubles/$1 in 2027, previously 100 rubles/$1, and at 102.0 rubles/$1 in 2028, previously 103.7 rubles/$1.

Expectations for the average oil price for tax purposes have been lowered to $56 from $58 per barrel in 2025, to $54 from $58 per barrel in 2026 and to $57 from $60 per barrel in 2027 and are unchanged at $60 per barrel in 2028.