Sberbank expects GDP growth of around 1%, inflation close to CBR's target, year-end key rate of 12% in 2026 - Gref

MOSCOW. Dec 10 (Interfax) - Sberbank forecasts restrained economic growth of around 1% in 2026, a key rate of 12% at the end of next year and a decline in inflation to a level close to the Central Bank of Russia's target, the bank's head Herman Gref said at Investor Day.

"We have jointly gone through a number of challenges. Tight monetary policy and regulation restrained economic growth. External factors, including prices for export goods, also did not add stability. The task for the upcoming period is to exit the economic cooling cycle and provide a timely impulse to launch investment projects that will determine the country's development for the next few years," he said.

Sberbank expects restrained economic growth of approximately 1% in 2026. According to the bank's assessment, inflationary pressure will weaken and approach the regulator's target.

"We expect a softening of monetary policy in such conditions. By the end of 2026, the key rate could reach 12%," Gref said.

According to the October version of the Central Bank's medium-term forecast, the Russian economy will grow 0.5%-1.5% in 2026. The regulator forecasts that annual inflation in 2026 will slow to 4%-5% and the average key rate will be 13%-15%.