Real GDP growth in Ukraine slows to 0.5% in Oct - experts

MOSCOW. Nov 20 (Interfax) - Real GDP growth in Ukraine slowed to 0.5% year-on-year in October 2025 versus 0.9% in September and 6.5% in August this year, Ukrainian media reported, citing a statement from the Institute for Economic Research and Political Consulting (IER).

It is primarily due to critical infrastructure damage, IER experts said.

The institute's analysts also worsened their estimate of real GDP growth in September from 1.2% to 0.9% due to the country's lower electricity production than initially expected, according to data from the State Statistics Service.

Ukraine's electricity production went down 13% and electricity exports fell 85% month-on-month in October, while electricity imports saw a 2.5-fold increase, the IER said.

"The mining industry is estimated to have fallen by 12% year-on-year. The contraction in the transport sector is estimated to have deepened to 10% year-on-year in October. Grain transport through seaports declined compared to the previous year. The processing industry is estimated to have declined by 1.1% year-on-year," the IER said, describing negative dynamics in other sectors in October.

Meanwhile, trade growth remained stable at around 3.5%, while the agricultural sector showed results similar to last year's due to Ukraine's largest harvest of sunflower and certain vegetables.

Livestock production continued to decline somewhat, and the harvesting campaign for corn was also slower, it said.

As reported, in late October the National Bank of Ukraine cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1%, citing power shortages, damage to gas production facilities and workforce shortages. It also cut this forecast for 2026 from 2.3% to 2%.

Earlier this week, the European Commission also reduced its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2025 to 1.6% from 2% projected in May, and for 2026 to 1.5% from 4.7%.