OPEC+ production increase in Dec may amount to 100,000 bpd, accounting for voluntary cuts - Interfax calculations

MOSCOW. Nov 5 (Interfax) - The total quota for OPEC+ countries in December, accounting for compensations from parties that violated the agreement, will be 38.214 million barrels per day (bpd), which is 100,000 bpd more than the November plan, according to Interfax calculations based on current OPEC data.

On Sunday, eight members of the group, which previously voluntarily limited oil production by 1.65 million bpd, approved a decision to increase production by another 137,000 bpd in total starting next month.

Three deal participants - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Algeria - will be able to produce at the level of their established quotas: 10.103 million bpd, 2.58 million bpd and 971,000 bpd, respectively.

Taking into account the updated schedule for compensating previously under-reduced production published later, Russia joins them in November, as it fell short of the established production plan in August and September. Its final compensation tranche of 10,000 bpd thus falls in October.

The remaining four participants of the group of eight will be forced to reduce their plans by a certain compensation amount, calculated depending on the degree of their overproduction in previous months.

According to current quotas and the latest compensation schedules, Russia's oil production plan for next month will increase to 9.574 million bpd compared to 9.532 million bpd in November, Iraq's to 4.148 million bpd, the UAE's to 3.401 million bpd and Oman's to 805,000 bpd. Kazakhstan will have to reduce production to 1.446 million bpd compared to 1.47 million bpd in November.

Thus, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be able to increase production by 42,000 bpd each starting next month, Iraq by 23,000 bpd, the UAE by 12,000 bpd, Kuwait by 11,000 bpd and Algeria by 4,000 bpd.

Kazakhstan alone will again have to reduce production, by 34,000 bpd, instead of increasing it.