NBU worsens assessment of electricity shortage in Ukraine in 2026 from 1% to 3%, imports of gas to 6 bcm in 2026, 5 bcm in 2026

MOSCOW. Oct 31 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has worsened its assessment of the electricity shortage in Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 to 4-6%, whereas it was estimating it at about 1% in July 2025, Ukrainian media outlets said.

"In 2026, the assessment of the electricity shortage was increased to 3% on average per year. According to the NBU's estimate, such expansion of the electricity shortage will slow down the GPP growth approximately by 0.1 percentage point in 2025 and by 0.2 percentage point in 2026," Ukrainian media outlets quoted the NBU's Inflation Report for October published on its website.

Damage of the energy infrastructure and generating capacities in late third quarter considerably increased the need for additional imports of electricity and gas in order to pass the heating season, the report said.

"Import of 6 bcm of gas is expected in 2025, 5 bcm in 2026 and 3 bcm in 2027. It will increase spending by over than $3 billion in 2026 and another $3 billion in 2026-2027," it said.

The NBU forecasted import of gas worth about $3 billion in 2025 and $1 billion in 2026 and 2027 each in its July report.

The baseline scenario forecast is based on the price of gas of $447.5 for 1,000 cbm at the Netherlands' TTF hub in 2025 with the subsequent decrease to $384.7 for 1,000 cbm in 2026 and $367.7 for 1,000 cbm in 2027.

As reported, last week, the NBU worsened its forecast of the growth of Ukraine's economy in 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% due to the power shortage, damage of gas production capacities and the labor shortage and from to 2.3% to 2% in 2026.