Central Bank of Russia lowers 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%-1.0% from 1.0%-2.0%

MOSCOW. Oct 24 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered its GDP growth forecast to 0.5%-1.0% in 2025 from 1.0%-2.0% in the July forecast, according to the regulator's medium-term outlook published following the meeting of the board of directors, when the CBR lowered the key rate to 16.5% per annum from 17% pa.

The GDP growth outlook for Q4 2025 has been downgraded to minus 0.5%-plus 0.5% year-on-year from 0%-1.0% in the July forecast.

However, the forecasts for GDP growth are unchanged from the July forecast at 0.5%-1.5% in 2026, 1.5%-2.5% in 2027, and 1.5%-2.5% in 2028.

"The upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path is narrowing. High-frequency data and survey indicators show a slowdown in overall economic activity growth in 2025 Q3, while the growth rate is still positive," the regulator said in a press release.

"The dynamics of business activity is uneven across industries. A significant cooldown is recorded in export-oriented industries. Domestic demand is backed up by rising household incomes and budget expenditures. Consumer activity growth has sped up somewhat," it said.

Russian GDP grew an estimated 0.4% year-on-year in August, the Economic Development Ministry has said. GDP rose 0.4% in July also. It rose 1.0% in June, 0.7% in May and 1.5% in April. GDP grew 1.1% in March, 0.5% in February and 2.7% in January. The economy grew an estimated 1.0% year-on-year in January-August, the ministry said.

The ministry in September lowered its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2025 to 1.0% from the 2.5% it was predicting in April, and to 1.3% in 2026 from 2.4%.

Analysts polled by Interfax in early October forecast 1.0% growth in Russian GDP in 2025 and a 1.4% increase in 2026.