Analysts raise forecast for inflation, key rate for 2025, lower expectations for Russian GDP growth - CBR survey

MOSCOW. Oct 15 (Interfax) - Analysts have raised their inflation forecast for 2025 to 6.6% from 6.4% in September, according to a Central Bank of Russia survey.

The forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2025 has been lowered to 1.0% from the previous prediction of 1.2%.

Expectations for the average key rate for the current year have increased to 19.2% from 19.0% in September.

The inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised from 4.7% to 5.1% and from 13.2% to 13.7% for the average rate. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced to 1.2% from 1.6% previously.

The survey was conducted on October 10-14. It involved 26 economists from various organizations.

The inflation forecast for 2027 was lowered to 4.1% from 4.2%, while for 2028 it remains at 4%.

GDP growth in 2027 is projected at 1.8%, previously 1.9%, and in 2028 at 1.9%, previously 2.0%.

The average key rate in 2027 is expected to be 10.0%, previously 10.3%, and in 2028 - 9.0%, previously 8.5%. The neutral rate estimate is unchanged at 8.0%.

Analysts forecast the average annual dollar exchange rate at 85 rubles in 2025 (85.5 rubles in September), 94.6 rubles in 2026 (previously 96 rubles), 100 rubles in 2027 (102.6 rubles), and 103.7 rubles in 2028 (105.5 rubles).

Expectations for the average oil price for tax purposes in 2025 remain at $58 per barrel. They were lowered to $58 from $59 for 2026, remain at $60 for 2027, and were lowered to $60 from $62 for 2028.