Sberbank definitely not lowering 2025 ROE forecast, could maintain net interest margin forecast - CFO
MOSCOW. Oct 8 (Interfax) - Sberbank will consider in October whether to revise guidance for key financial indicators in 2025, but will definitely not lower its return on equity (ROE) expectations from above 22%, CFO Taras Skvortsov, told Interfax.
"When we release our financial statements at the end of October, we will assess the need to make any changes to the forecast, but we will definitely not lower our return on equity forecast below this level [above 22% for 2025]. Above 22% is the minimum set by our strategy," Skvortsov said on the sidelines of Finopolis.
Sber currently sees no reason to revise its net interest margin forecast for 2025, currently above 5.8%.
"No, we don't see any reason for that. Everything is going roughly as we expected. The key rate dynamics are somewhat different. We're no longer expecting it to decline by the end of the year as much as we thought in late July and early August. In terms of margins, our expectations are still the same; the last few months have been within our forecast. Tomorrow, we'll disclose RAS figures for September, and on October 28, IFRS figures for the third quarter. We'll assess the need to revise the forecast, but I think this figure [for a margin above 5.8%] will likely remain unchanged," he said.
Sberbank will air its key rate expectations for 2025 after the Central Bank's board meeting on October 24.
"We will review this in our IFRS financial statements, which will be published a few days after the Central Bank's rate meeting. We are now seeing from market indicators (rate levels, derivatives movements) that expectations for key rate reduction were more optimistic than current forecasts. Expectations for the year-end rate have increased by at least a percentage point. We are also considering revising our forecast; we will be able to announce specific figures after the Central Bank's board meeting," Skvortsov said.
He said Sberbank forecasts the banking sector would make less profit in 2025 than the 3.8 trillion rubles seen in 2024.
"We're seeing the banking system's figures for August. We see that the profit of many banks has declined. However, for us, the trend is positive, and we don't expect it to reverse in the remaining months. Overall, the sector saw very strong profits at the end of 2024. The base is very high, and it will be very difficult to repeat the 2024 result, especially given that the sector was still performing worse than last year as of September 1. We expect the overall figure for the year to be lower as well," Skvortsov said.
