Improvement in Russian auto market in 2026 only possible if monetary policy is softened - minister
TYUMEN. Sept 17 (Interfax) - The Industry and Trade Ministry is not yet ready to give optimistic forecasts regarding the growth of the automotive industry in 2026, with a condition for market revival being the preservation of the trend towards a decrease in the key rate and the easing of the Central Bank of Russia's restrictions for auto lending, Industry and Trade Minister Anton Alikhanov told journalists.
"I think that so far, both the level of the rate and certain regulatory requirements of the Central Bank specifically for auto lending are such that I will not rush to give assessments for next year. If the trend continues [towards a decrease in the Central Bank's key rate] and some restrictions, new requirements that [Central Bank Governor] Elvira Sakhipzadovna [Nabiullina] introduced in January-February, if they are weakened, returned to the level before the beginning of this year, then we can hope for a faster, so to speak, revival and good recovery rates," Alikhanov said.
For its part, the Industry and Trade Ministry intends to maintain existing support measures for the auto industry, in particular preferential leasing and auto lending programs. Alikhanov did not name the possible funding levels for these programs in 2026. "Will they be increased? Until we have finally completed the budget process within the government, I will not comment on this topic. Undoubtedly, they will be preserved as a tool," he said.
No special support measures are planned for highly localized players such as Avtovaz . "We do not make completely individual decisions. Our support measures are always aimed at least at two players in the market, if not all," he said.
Earlier on Wednesday, at the plenary session of the TNF 2025 industrial and energy forum, Alikhanov noted the positive role of restrictions on imports, including the scrappage fee, in the development of the Russian automotive industry in recent years. "If you want investment, build barriers, this is such a cliched formula. And, in fact, this allowed us - I mean the scrappage fee - to attract a lot. Factories in Kaluga and St. Petersburg have been restarted, sites in Kaliningrad and Lipetsk are operating, Moskvich is working in cooperation with its new Chinese partners. All this would have been impossible without restrictive measures. Of course, it is difficult to explain this to the consumer at the moment, and probably not necessary. Our task is to make difficult decisions, but strategically they are correct for our consumers because they provide an opportunity to create complex products," he said.
