Russia's current account surplus falls 40% in Jan-July to $25.1 bln - Central Bank estimate

MOSCOW. Sept 16 (Interfax) - Russia's current account surplus shrank by 39.5% to $25.1 billion in January-July 2025 from $41.5 billion in the same period in 2024, the balance of payments estimate published on the Central Bank of Russia's website showed.

There was a current account surplus of $1.7 billion in July following a deficit of $0.3 billion in the previous month and a deficit of $0.6 billion in July 2024. The previous estimate of a $0.7 billion surplus in June 2025 was revised.

Russia's foreign trade surplus narrowed by 12.8% to $70.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025 from $81.1 billion a year earlier.

The trade surplus in July alone jumped 41.9% to $13.2 billion from $9.3 billion a month earlier and 29.4% from $10.2 billion a year earlier.

Estimate for key accounts of Russia's balance of payments in Jan-July and July 2025 (bln USD):

Indicator Jan-July y/y July m/m y/y Current account 25.10 -39.5% 1.7 Trade balance 70.7 -12.8% 13.2 41.9% 29.4% Exports 234.1 -4.1% 38.0 15.9% 6.4% Imports 163.4 0.3% 24.9 6.0% -2.4% Services balance -26.1 29.2% -5.5 14.6% 31.0% Exports 25.4 3.7% 4.0 5.3% 5.3% Imports 51.5 15.0% 9.4 9.3% 17.5% Primary and secondary income balance -19.4 0.5% -6.0 25.0% -9.1% Income receivable 20.5 -1.9% 3.9 25.8% 30.0% Income payable 40.0 -0.5% 9.8 24.1% 2.1% Financial account, incl. reserve assets 25.0 -39.5% 1.7 Net acquisition of financial assets, excl. reserve assets 25.0 -35.7% 2.8 133.3% Net incurrence of liabilities 29.6 -30.8% 4.7 487.5% 20.5% Change in reserve assets 4.6 17.9% 1.9 -65.5% Net errors and omissions -10.6 20.5% -1.3 62.5% 116.7%

The primary and secondary income deficit was little changed year-on-year at $19.4 billion in the first seven months of 2025, but grew to $6.0 billion in July from $4.8 billion a month earlier, mainly due to a seasonal increase in dividends accrued to nonresidents by the private sector.

The growth of foreign assets, including reserve assets, slowed to $29.6 billion in the seven months from $42.8 billion a year earlier, partly because of a decrease in nonresidents' debt on uncompleted foreign trade settlements. In July alone, foreign assets grew by $4.7 billion after increasing by $0.8 billion a month earlier, primarily on the back of other investments.

External liabilities grew by $4.6 billion in the seven months, compared to $3.9 billion a year earlier, in part due to direct investment. External liabilities increased by $1.9 billion in July after shrinking by $0.4 billion in June thanks to an inflow of other investment into the private sector.

The baseline scenario of the Central Bank's forecast, which was updated on July 25, projects that, with the average annual price of $55 per barrel set for Russian oil for taxation purposes, the country will have a current account surplus of $33 billion in 2025 and visible trade surplus of $104 billion, but an invisible trade deficit of $41 billion and primary and secondary income deficit of $30 billion.