Russian grain exporters will face increased competition in global market - expert

CHELYABINSK. Aug 13 (Interfax) - Russian grain exporters, primarily wheat exporters, will face increased competition in the global market, the head of the analytical department at the Agroexport federal center Alena Shatkova said.

"We face very high risks of increasing competition in African countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In North Africa, Morocco and Algeria are in the risk zone. Competition is also growing in the Middle East," Shatkova said at an industry session during the Agro 2025 exhibition in Chelyabinsk on Wednesday.

Among the reasons, she cited the recovery of wheat production in EU countries, which may increase supplies to their traditional markets, including Morocco. In addition, additional pressure may come from Ukrainian wheat, which has lost its preferential access to the EU and may be redirected to other markets.

Global growth in the production of wheat, barley, and corn should be expected this season, which "will certainly put pressure on prices," Shatkova said. "If we look at the countries of the Northern Hemisphere, in general, for all key wheat exporters - Russia, the EU, Canada, the U.S. and Ukraine - either a recovery in production or maintenance at average levels is expected, with the largest increase expected in the EU countries. Accordingly, it should be expected that export supply will also be at a fairly high level," she said. "In the second half of the season, Southern Hemisphere countries join in. Here important exporters are Australia and Argentina, which are also expected to have good production figures, and as a result, will be able to put a decent amount on the market," she said.

According to her presentation, the wheat supply from the EU in the 2025-2026 season (which began on July 1, 2025) will increase to 32.5 million tonnes from 26.5 million tonnes last season, from the U.S. - to 23.1 million tonnes from 22.5 million tonnes, from Australia - to 28 million tonnes from 23 million tonnes, and from Argentina - to 13 million tonnes from 11 million tonnes, respectively.

"On the other hand, global import demand for wheat from the Asian region is recovering. First of all, an increase in imports from Indonesia is expected, as well as a recovery in demand from China, which last year saw a rather sharp collapse in imports," Shatkova said.

Import demand in North African and sub-Saharan African countries will remain stable, at the level of last season, she said. "If we look at the Middle East, the import potential here will grow quite noticeably, with Turkey being the catalyst. Last year, Turkey imposed a ban on wheat imports, but this year, against the backdrop of unfavorable weather conditions, it is likely to reduce production. It is expected that it will restore its imports to about 7.5 million tonnes," she said.

Speaking about Russian exports, Shatkova recalled that Russian wheat in recent years has accounted for up to a quarter of the global market. Russian wheat dominates in the markets of Egypt, Bangladesh, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, while the key buyers of Russian barley are Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Wheat exports last season amounted to 43.5 million tonnes, which is lower than the previous record season (54.1 million tonnes). "But at the same time, there are achievements here. It should be noted that the geography has shifted somewhat. By the end of last season, greater emphasis was placed on African countries. North Africa traditionally means Egypt, a key importer, but at the same time Algeria purchased decent amounts, and supplies to Morocco grew quite significantly," she said. Shatkova noted that Nigeria, Kenya and Tanzania were also among the African countries.

"As for Asia, here, against the backdrop of a reduction in our supply and an increase in supply from Argentina and Australia, there was some decline to certain destinations, but at the same time we retained key positions in the markets of Bangladesh, Iran and Indonesia," she said.