National Bank of Ukraine's net forex interventions up 30.9% in July 2025

MOSCOW. Aug 6 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased forex sales on the interbank market by $873.6 million, or by 30.9%, to $3.69 billion in July 2025, Ukrainian media said citing the statistics published by the NBU on its website.

Currency purchases by the NBU fell to $0.83 million in July from $1.2 million in June, the bank said. Its forex interventions shrank by $171.9 million, or by 21.2%, to $639.6 million last week.

The official exchange rate of the national currency, the hryvnia, strengthened from UAH 41.7788/$1 to UAH 41.7662/$1 in July.

On the cash forex market, the hryvnia's exchange rate strengthened by nearly 13 kopecks, with the buying rate standing at around UAH 41.48/$1 and the selling rate at UAH 41.58/$1.

"In July, the dollar's exchange rate against the hryvnia continued to demonstrate high stability accompanied by minor intra-day volatility, which is not becoming a trend," experts at KIT Group, a major cash forex market player, said.

The exchange rate's fluctuations are within 0.2%, which shows the market's highly restrained reaction, especially in light of the announcement of important macroeconomic signals, they said.

KIT Group experts expect the corridor of UAH 41.40/$1 to UAH 42.10/$1 to persist in the short term, one-three weeks, in the absence of external shocks or a surge in demand from importers.

According to their estimates, the exchange rate may gradually shift toward UAH 42.30/$1-UAH 42.80/$1 in the mid-term, up to three months, in conditions of the traditional growth of budget expenditures in the second half of the year, the intensification of imports, or if the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark interest rate, as expected, prompting a correction of the dollar's exchange rate.

The experts expect to see a controlled devaluation trend in the long-term prospect, a period of more than six months. Under their baseline scenario, the exchange rate may be within UAH 43/$1-UAH 44.50/$1 on the condition that the current level of international support is maintained, the reserves remain stable, and there are no sudden shocks, especially those of an external economic nature.