National Bank of Ukraine seriously worsens its current account balance forecast for 2025
MOSCOW. Aug 5 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) worsened its current account deficit forecast for 2025 from $17.3 billion to $34.6 billion in the Inflation Report, updated in July, though at the beginning of the year it expected a surplus of $2.6 billion in 2025 following a $15.9-billion deficit last year, Ukrainian media said.
"Exports are lower because of the reduction of the harvests and imports are higher because of the bigger budget deficit, the abolition of trade liberalization measures with the EU, and the availability of more accurate data for 2024," the NBU said.
Its updated estimates show that exports of goods and services from Ukraine in 2025 will edge down to $56 billion from $56.1 billion in 2024, while imports will grow to $108.2 billion from $95.5 billion. The NBU also worsened its trade deficit forecast to $52.2 billion from $40.5 billion in the April Inflation Report.
According to the NBU, exports of IT services are among the sources of forex revenue for Ukraine that remained relatively stable during the crisis. Following a slight decline in the forex inflow with a low point in 2024 ($6.6 billion), the forex inflow is expected to stand at $6.7 billion in 2025 and 2026 each and reach $7.3 billion in 2027, outperforming the $7.1-billion result recorded in 2021.
In addition, the NBU again reduced its estimate of private cash transfers in Ukraine this year to $8.9 billion from $9.6 billion, though at the beginning of 2025 the bank expected them to reach $10.1 billion versus $9.5 billion last year. The NBU also worsened this estimate for 2026 to $8.8 billion from $10.9 billion.
"Cash transfers gradually decreased (to $9.5 billion in 2024) as a result of the decline in seasonal workforce migration and the reunion of a number of families abroad. Labor migration is expected to restore only in 2027, which, in turn, will help reinvigorate money transfers (projected at $9.8 billion in 2027)," the NBU said.
In its updated Inflation Report, the NBU worsened its current account deficit forecast for 2026 to $34.9 billion from $31.3 billion, cuts its estimates for exports to $61.7 billion from $63.1 billion but increased them for imports to $108.5 billion from $99.9 billion.
Meanwhile, this downgrade of the current account balance forecast in the updated Inflation Report is largely offset by its higher estimates for financial account receipts from $29.5 billion to $43 billion in 2025, and from $20.2 billion to $25.8 billion in 2026.
As a result, Ukraine's consolidated balance surplus is expected to stand at $8.6 billion this year. Since it will help increase the country's gross international reserves from $43.8 billion to $53.7 billion, next year, given the anticipated consolidated balance deficit of $9.1 billion, they will decline to a satisfactory level of $44.7 billion, accounting for five months of future imports.
As reported, the current account deficit in Ukraine stood at $14.9 billion in H1 2025 versus $10.4 billion in January-June 2024. The foreign trade deficit also increased to $24.5 billion from $17.2 billion, reaching a monthly all-time high of $5.1 billion in June.
Meanwhile, net financial account borrowing rose to $16.1 billion in January-June 2025 from $7.8 billion in H1 2024. Still, the balance of payments posted a surplus of $1.3 billion against the $2.5-billion deficit in the same period of last year.
