International financial institutions' overly conservative estimates on Russia's economic dynamics never materialize - Economic Development Ministry on IMF forecast

MOSCOW. July 30 (Interfax) - International financial institutions have repeatedly issued negative assessments of Russia's economic development, and in recent years their overly conservative forecasts have never come true, the Economic Development Ministry said regarding the International Monetary Funds (IMF)'s new GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025.

"International financial institutions are not the first to make negative predictions regarding the development of the Russian economy. Over the past few years, none of these overly conservative estimates has ever matched reality. We are currently working on our own forecast, which will take all factors into account," the ministry's press service said.

As reported, on Tuesday the IMF significantly lowered its forecast for Russia's economic growth in 2025 to 0.9% from 1.5% after a slight upward revision in April (by 0.1 percentage points, from 1.4%). The IMF's estimate is therefore below the range predicted by the Central Bank of Russia, which expects Russia's GDP to grow by 1%-2% in 2025, and significantly lower than the Economic Development Ministry's April baseline forecast of 2.5%.

The IMF's forecast for Russia's economic growth in 2026 has been slightly improved - to 1% from 0.9%, which falls within the Central Bank's projected range (0.5%-1.5%) but remains below the Economic Development Ministry's estimate of 2.4%.

According to the ministry, Russia's GDP growth in May 2025 amounted to 1.2% year-on-year, following a 1.9% increase in April, 1.1% in March, 0.5% in February and 2.7% in January. From January to May 2025, Russia's GDP, as estimated by the ministry, grew 1.5% YoY.

Analysts surveyed by Interfax in early July forecast GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026.