NBU expects $65 billion in external financing for 2026-2027, needs to find $41.7 billion
UKRAINE. July 25 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) estimates in the baseline macro-forecast based on a crisis scenario, Ukraine's receiving about $65 billion in external financial aid in 2026-2027, and $41.7 billion of it is not confirmed yet, Ukrainian media outlets said with a reference to NBU Deputy Governor Sergei Nikolaichuk.
"The figures correlate with the evaluations made by the government representatives who said that we would need about $75 billion in 2026-2027, if high security risks remain. Of them, $37.4 billion currently do not have confirmed sources of financing," Ukrainian media outlets quoted Nikolaichuk as saying at the discussion headlined 'What Awaits the Economy in 2025 and so on' organized by the Center for Economic Strategy on Friday.
According to the data provided by the NBU deputy governor, Ukraine expects to receive $54 billion in external aid this year, namely, $2.4 billion from the IMF, $12.8 billion from the EU under the Ukraine Facility program, $35.9 billion under the ERA mechanism, and $2.5 billion from other sources.
The NBU envisages external financing in 2026 in the amount of about $35 billion, including $12.7 billion, which have not been confirmed yet, $2.2 billion from the IMF, $7.8 billion under Ukraine Facility, $11 billion under the ERA mechanism, and $1.2 billion from other sources.
The only confirmed source out of the $30 billion expected for 2027 is the last tranche under the IMF's EFF program totaling about $1 billion, Nikolaichuk said.
Finding financing is the main problem and objective everyone is working on now to avoid difficulties in the financial and economic sector, he said.
If necessary financing is not provided, the regulator will respond promptly and take into account existing risks at every meeting, he said.
"We have already passed several of such periods when aid was insufficient, and the Finance Ministry had to involve quite significant options. In fact, we have certain plans for the situation when international aid is not enough," Nikolaichuk said.
The NBU is able to use additional monetary and regulatory instruments, he said. At the same time, their use will have consequences for both the development of the financial market and the ability to support separate sectors of the economy, he said.
"If we don't receive the amounts outlined in the baseline scenario, unfortunately, we will have to pursue a tougher monetary policy and use more measures to support the budget via various assistance," Nikolaichuk said.
