Russian current account surplus narrows 34.7% to $24.3 bln in 5M - Central Bank estimate

MOSCOW. July 11 (Interfax) - Russia's current account surplus narrowed 34.7% to $24.3 billion in January-May 2025 from $37.2 billion in the same period of 2024, the Central Bank said in an estimate of the balance of payments, published on its website.

The trade surplus fell 19.0%, to $47.9 billion from $59.1 billion.

The current account surplus was $3.0 billion in May 2025, down 16.7% from an adjusted $3.6 billion surplus in April - the Central Bank originally estimated there had been a surplus of $3.8 billion in April. The May 2025 surplus was down 42.3% from the May 2024 surplus of $5.2 billion.

The trade surplus narrowed 3.3% to $8.7 billion in May from $9.0 billion in April and was down 28.1% from $12.1 billion in May 2024.

Estimate of key Russian balance of payment aggregates in 5M 2025, $ bln:

5M YoY May MoM YoY Current account 24,3 -34,7% 3,0 -16,7% -42,3% Goods 47,9 -19,0% 8,7 -3,3% -28,1% Exports 162,8 -5,7% 33,1 -1,8% -9,8% Imports 115,0 1,3% 24,4 -1,2% -0,4% Services -15,8 26,4% -4,5 28,6% 45,2% Exports 17,7 1,7% 3,6 -7,7% 2,9% Imports 33,5 12,0% 8,2 10,8% 24,2% Balance on primary and secondary income -7,7 -18,1% -1,2 -36,8% -68,4% Receivable 13,6 -12,3% 2,6 -13,3% -7,1% Payable 21,3 -14,5% 3,8 -22,4% -42,4% Net acquisition of financial assets, excluding reserve assets 26,5 -23,2% 3,7 -7,5% -11,9% Net incurrence of liabilities 3,5 1,9 72,7%

The total deficit in primary and secondary income fell to $1.2 billion in May from $1.9 billion a month earlier, primarily driven by a reduction in the amounts of dividends payable to non-residents by large Russian companies.

The total primary and secondary income deficit fell to $7.7 billion in 5M from $9.4 billion a year earlier, caused by both a decline in the amount of reinvested earnings of foreign investors and a reduction in dividends payable to non-residents.

External assets excluding reserve assets grew by $3.7 billion in May compared with $4.0 billion a month earlier mainly due to the growth in other investment. They rose $26.5 billion in 5M compared with $34.5 billion growth a year ago, from the partial repayment by non-residents of the indebtedness on outstanding settlements and a decline in the amount of transfers payable.

External liabilities rose by $1.9 billion in May after falling $1.7 billion in April 2025, the main contribution being made by an increase in direct investment mainly due to the accrual of reinvested earnings and debt financing. External liabilities grew $3.5 billion in 5M 2025 after falling $2.7 billion in 4M 2024 due to the growth in direct investment mainly in the form of reinvested earnings accrual as well as a slowdown in the net repayment of foreign loans.

The Central Bank's baseline scenario, updated on April 25, assumes that if Russian oil prices for tax purposes average at $60 per barrel there will be a current account surplus of $38 billion, visible trade surplus of $111 billion, services trade deficit of $40 billion and primary and secondary incomes deficit of $33 billion in 2025.