AEB lowers 2025 auto market forecast for Russia 24% to 1.25 mln units, suggests potential recovery with state support

MOSCOW. July 3 (Interfax) - The Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the Association of European Businesses (AEB) has revised its 2025 forecast for Russia's passenger car and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market downwards to 1.25 million units, representing a 24% decline compared to the previous year.

Given current realities, the AEB considers it necessary to adjust its 2025 forecast downwards and expects 1.25 million vehicles to be sold this year, which is 24% fewer than in 2024, the association said.

At the beginning of the year, the AEB projected a 15% decline in the market to 1.4 million units. In June, the committee's head Alexei Kalitsev told Interfax about the anticipated revision of the forecast. With further positive developments regarding the key rate, the market could still exceed 1.25 million units this year, he said.

The AEB did not rule out that the market could eventually shift towards recovery, provided there is government support, it said. The AEB strongly welcomed the decision of the Industry and Trade Ministry to reinstate the First Car and Family Car demand stimulation programs, it said. It hopes the terms of these programs will be accessible to as wide a range of brands represented on the market as possible, it said.

The AEB also hopes that the first small reduction in the key rate will contribute to market stabilization, and that its further downward correction will allow the market to respond positively, it said.

Sales of new passenger cars (up to three years old) and LCVs in Russia fell 27.5% year-on-year in June 2025 to 96,744 units, the Industry and Trade Ministry said earlier, based on Electronic vehicle passport registration data from JSC Passport Industrial Consulting (a joint venture of Avtostat and the Electronic Vehicle Passport operator). In particular, 89,599 passenger cars were sold (down 27% YoY and 1% month-on-month), while LCV sales amounted to 7,145 units (-32% YoY and -7% MoM). A total of 575,521 passenger and light commercial vehicles were sold (-25.7%) in January-June, including 526,698 passenger cars (-26%) and 48,823 LCVs (-19%).