No recession yet, important not to miss right moment to begin softening monetary policy - Gref

ST. PETERSBURG. June 20 (Interfax) - The Russian economy is not currently showing any signs of a recession, but it is important not to miss the right moment for transitioning to a softer monetary policy, Sberbank CEO Herman Gref said.

"I don't see any recession as yet," Gref told journalists at the sidelines of the Sberbank business breakfast at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF 2025). He said that a recession would be declared if the economy had 0% growth for two consecutive quarters.

Due to the necessity of choosing the right moment to soften monetary policy, there are currently heated debates in progress about whether current trends point to a planned slowing of the economy or to a recession.

"It is very important not to miss the right moment for the transition to a softer monetary policy. And right now is a pivotal moment," Gref said.

He said that on the whole, it would be possible to find a balance and that the economy would be able to tread the very fine line between cooling and recession.

Gref said that the current baseline economic growth model was still up-to-date.

"But clearly, if we take as our basis only the factors that we have before us now, we won't be able to realize the ambitions that we have formulated - a minimum of 3% economic growth," he said.

He said that Russia needed to seek out new growth factors, develop alternative economic sectors, activate an investment paradigm for companies, employ new technologies and eliminate ineffective older technologies.

"We talked about the labor factor today - yes, that means education, research and migration policy," the Sberbank CEO said.

He said that it was also important for universities to keep up a high quality of work.