Ukraine expecting shortage of rye, higher rye bread prices in marketing year 2025-2026

MOSCOW. June 9 (Interfax) - Ukraine will see a rye shortage in the 2025-2026 season 100%, which will unavoidably raise rye bread prices, Millers of Ukraine Director Rodion Rybchinsky said, as quoted by Ukrainian media.

"We can say with confidence there will be a rye deficit in the 2025-2026 season 100%. Polish rye is already processed in Ukraine in part, and bakers are using Baltic rye flour. Unfortunately, this is our reality," he said.

The association explains the rye shortage with the reluctance of agricultural producers to sow the crop, since its yield is a third lower than that of wheat - up to 40 centners per hectare versus 60, respectively.

In the past, Belarus fully compensated for the deficit, which caused a decline in rye production in Ukraine, as local farmers found it hard to beat the competition. Besides, rye is not one of the popular export crops and is in demand on the domestic market only.

The current rye price is higher than competitive: a tonne of rye cost UAH 6,000-7.000 in 2024, versus UAH 12.000-14,000 in May 2025. Rybchinsky said.

As to whether the rye shortage will lead to an increase in the price of rye bread, he said it definitely will.

"Currently, Ukrainian rye flour costs UAH 18,000 per tonne, versus the price of imported rye of around UAH 20,000. Rye flour cost about UAH 10,000 in May. Not just the rye bread price will grow - many bakers will simply stop making it," he said.

Ukraine will have a rye shortage and will be buying rye abroad at European prices in the marketing year 2025-2026, Rybchinsky said. That will make rye interesting for Ukrainian agrarians who are likely to increase the area under rye crops in the marketing year 2026-2027 and to level off the market situation by doing so.