Analysts slightly lower Russia's 2025 GDP growth forecast, maintain inflation, average rate expectations - CBR survey

MOSCOW. May 28 (Interfax) - Analysts have slightly reduced their forecast for Russia's GDP growth in 2025 while maintaining their inflation and key rate trajectory expectations for the current year, according to a Central Bank of Russia survey.

The 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia has been revised downwards to 1.5% from 1.6% in April.

Inflation expectations for 2025 remain unchanged at 7.1%, with the average key rate projection staying at 20.0%.

The survey was conducted from May 23-27, 2025.

The inflation forecast for 2026 has been lowered from 4.8% to 4.6%, while the 2027 projection has been raised from 4.0% to 4.2%.

GDP growth expectations for 2026 remain at 1.7%, while the 2027 forecast has been reduced to 1.9% from 2.0%.

The average key rate is projected at 14.2% in 2026 (previously 14.3%) and 10.0% in 2027 (previously 9.7%). Analysts' estimate of the neutral rate remains unchanged at 8.0%.

Analysts forecast the average annual dollar exchange rate at 91.5 rubles for 2025 (95.2 rubles in April), 101.4 rubles for 2026 (previously 102.4 rubles) and 105.6 rubles for 2027 (previously 106.7 rubles).

Expectations for the average tax-adjusted oil price in 2025 have been lowered from $60 per barrel to $58 per barrel, while projections for 2026 and 2027 remain at $60 per barrel.

The survey results represent the median forecasts of 27 economists from various organizations, the Central Bank said. When respondents provided range estimates, the midpoint was used for calculations.