Retail loan portfolio of Russian banks not expected to change in 2025, but slight growth possible due to mortgages - Sberbank first dep CEO

MOSCOW. May 13 (Interfax) - The retail loan portfolio of Russian banks is expected to remain approximately at its current level in 2025, while slight growth is possible due to mortgages, Kirill Tsarev, First Deputy CEO of Sberbank , said in an interview with Interfax.

"Our forecast for the overall retail portfolio is that it will remain roughly the same. Theoretically, it could grow due to mortgages, with consumer loans down, automobile loans flat or down (probably the latter) and credit cards stable, perhaps up slightly," Tsarev said.

Sberbank previously forecast that retail lending in the sector as a whole would grow less than 5% in 2025 while the bank itself planned to grow above the average for sector. There are no reasons to revise this forecast yet, Tsarev said.

"We expect the consumer loan portfolio to decrease. According to forecasts, mortgages will grow by 3%-6% give or take in 2025. It should be mentioned that state programs are becoming more and more targeted, and this is the right and positive signal. I think that the mortgage market is relatively stable," Tsarev said.

He said state programs would again drive modest growth for the mortgage portfolio. "If we see a gradual drop in the cost of money, and therefore market mortgage rates, then we'll see some sort of growth in the portfolio. We can cautiously assume we are on a plateau, after which either mortgage issuances will grow slightly from current levels, or the trend will persist. The same cannot be said about consumer loans," he said.

On the whole the retail portfolio is adapting to the new market realities, below which it will not now fall, Tsarev said. "Looking ahead, it should start growing, but not by much," he said.

Sberbank's retail loan portfolio under IFRS decreased by 0.9% in Q1 2025 or by 0.5% excluding securitization of housing loans to 18 trillion rubles.