Russian budget deficit at 3.225 trln rubles or 1.5% of GDP in Jan-April

MOSCOW. May 7 (Interfax) - The Russian federal budget was executed with a deficit of 3.225 trillion rubles or 1.5% of GDP in January-April 2025 according to preliminary data, the Finance Ministry said in a brief monthly report.

According to preliminary Finance Ministry data, the deficit amounted to 2.173 trillion rubles or 1% of GDP in Q1. A deficit of around 1 trillion rubles was thus preliminarily recorded in April.

The Finance Ministry attributes this level of deficit to front-loaded spending in January as well as a decline in oil and gas revenues. This will not affect the fulfillment of the structural balance targets for 2025 as a whole, the ministry said.

The approved budget for this year planned a deficit of 1.173 trillion rubles or 0.5% of GDP, though this was increased to 3.792 trillion rubles or 1.7% of GDP under spring amendments, which were supported by the government at the end of April.

Federal budget revenue grew 5% year-on-year to 12.274 trillion rubles in 4M 2025. Non-oil revenue grew 13.5% to 8.546 trillion rubles, somewhat exceeding the target. Growth in VAT payments slowed to 1.3% due to accelerated VAT refunds in the first month of the quarter, and this will not affect the quarterly payment trend.

The Finance Ministry said non-oil revenue could grow significantly more than stated in the approved budget based on its January-April growth trajectory as well as the higher tax base of the previous year. The spring amendments to the law stipulate an increase in the non-oil revenue forecast.

Oil and gas revenue fell 10.3% year-on-year to 3.727 trillion rubles in January-April 2025, principally due to a fall in the average oil price as well as the one-off additional MET payment on oil in February 2024.

"Oil and gas revenue in January-April this year was higher than the base level; however, it is at risk of decreasing due to lower prices on the market," the Finance Ministry said.

The ministry forecasts the oil and gas revenue shortfall at 447 billion rubles in 2025. This amount will be taken from the National Welfare Fund (NWF).

Federal budget expenditure increased 20.8% year-on-year to 15.499 trillion rubles in 4M 2025. Expenditure increased at a slower rate of 10.2% year-on-year in February-April and 12.1% in April after accelerated growth to 64.1% in January 2025, the Finance Ministry said.

The budget approved for 2025 planned revenue at 40.296 trillion rubles and expenditure at 41.470 trillion rubles, versus 38.506 trillion rubles and 42.298 trillion rubles respectively after the spring amendments.