Russia's 2025 oil export estimate reduced by 4 mln tonnes to 230 mln tonnes, down 15 mln tonnes from 2024 - ministry

MOSCOW. May 5 (Interfax) - Russia's oil export estimate for 2025 has been lowered by 3.8 million tonnes to 229.7 million tonnes, according to the macro forecast scenario conditions for 2025-2028 published on the website of the Economic Development Ministry, which were reviewed by the government.

In the September forecast, it was expected that 233.5 million tonnes of oil would be exported from Russia in 2025.

The estimate for exports in 2024 has also been revised. While the September forecast projected 239.9 million tonnes, the updated document indicates actual exports of 244.6 million tonnes in 2024.

It is assumed that 238 million tonnes of oil will be exported from the country in 2026, 242.4 million tonnes in 2027 and 250.5 million tonnes in 2028. These figures match the conservative forecast.

Estimates for petroleum product exports have also changed. It was previously expected that exports would reach 131.6 million tonnes in 2024, but only 122.5 million tonnes were shipped. It was planned that petroleum product exports in the current year would reach 133.6 million tonnes. The latest estimate is 125.9 million tonnes.

The ministry thus expects petroleum product exports to grow by 3.4 million tonnes by the end of the current year. In 2026, the figure is projected to rise to 132 million tonnes, to 134 million tonnes in 2027, and remain at that level in 2028.

It was previously reported that, according to the ministry's forecast, the average annual price of Urals crude oil will be $56 per barrel in 2025, compared to $66.6/bbl last year; $61 in 2026, $63 in 2027 and $65 in 2028.

The conservative forecast assumes a drop in price to $48.8/bbl in 2025 and to $43/bbl in 2026-2028.